With one month to go before Australians vote, sportsbet.com.au has the Coalition winning 78 seats to Labor’s 65, with two seats in doubt.
The Liberal held seats of Swan and Hindmarsh remain too close to call, with both the Coalition and Labor locked on $1.87.
The online bookmaker expects the crossbench will remain at five, but Clive Palmer’s Fairfax will head back to the Coalition with the Greens’ Alex Bhathal picking up Batman from Labor.
2016 Federal Election Projected Total Seats Won
* Coalition ($1.30): 78
* Labor ($3.50): 65
*Seats of Swan and Hindmarsh currently considered too close to call.
? Others: 5 (Adam Bandt (Greens – Melbourne), Alex Bhathal (Greens – Batman), Cathy McGowan (Independent – Indi), Andrew Wilkie (Independent – Denison) and Bob Katter (KAP – Kennedy).
Key Highlights:
• The Coalition remain $1.30 favourite to win the election, with Labor priced at $3.50.
• 1:3 bets is heading Labor’s way, but Sportsbet is holding twice as much money on the Coalition.
• Labor is expected to pick up the NSW seats of Eden Monaro, Dobell and Macarthur from the Coalition.
• Labor is favourite to pick up Petrie and Capricornia from the Coalition in Queensland.
• Labor is also expected to win Hasluck, Cowan and Burt (new) in Western Australia.
• Liberal MP Steve Irons is facing a fight in Swan, locked on $1.87 with Labor’s Tammy Solonec.
• Liberal MP Matt Williams is locked on $1.87 with former Labor MP Steve Georganas in Hindmarsh.
• Labor’s Mike Kelly is the $1.65 favourite to win the bellwether seat of Eden Monaro in NSW.
• Alex Bhatal is $1.50 favourite to deliver the Greens its second lower house seat in Victoria.
• Crossbenchers Cathy McGowan ($1.15), Adam Bandt ($1.05), Bob Katter ($1.20) and Andrew Wilkie ($1.10) are favourites to be returned.
• Coalition is ahead 24 seats to 22 in NSW.
• Labor is ahead 19 seats to 16 in Victoria, with the Greens to pick up Melbourne and Batman.
• Labor is expected to clean up in the territories, winning all four seats in the ACT and NT.
• Coalition and Labor split on five seats each in South Australia, with Hindmarsh too close to call.
• Coalition ahead in Tasmania three seats to Labor’s one, with Wilkie winning Denison.
• Coalition ahead nine seats to six in Western Australia, with Swan too close to call.
“The polls have Labor in an election winning position, but the seat by seat odds suggest the Coalition will win at least 78 seats, with Swan and Hindmarsh too close to call,’’ said sportsbet.com.au’s Ben Bulmer.
“Labor is expected to fall 11 seats short of gaining a lower house majority, and while they should pick up a handful of seats from the Coalition, the prized Labor-held Melbourne seat of Batman looks headed to the Greens.”
View the Federal Election markets