Many of the horses that contested the Railway Stakes (1600m) step up to 1800m here in the Kingston Town Classic. Defending champion Perfect Reflection is favourite for the final Group 1 of 2016. Under the weight-for-age conditions, several horses including Railway Stakes winner Scales of Justice rise steeply in weight.
GOOD PROJECT
Odds ($15)
Jockey: Hugh Bowman.
Why he can: In great form and was a last start second to Scales of Justice in the Group 1 Railway Stakes. He was well beaten (2.75 lengths), but he made the home turn a little awkward and will probably take improvement.
Why he can’t: Yet to win beyond 1600m. Untried at 1800m and had the gun run and his finishing effort did nothing to suggest he will run this out strongly.
IHTSAHYMN
Odds ($31)
Jockey: Steven Parnham.
Why he can: Made up ground when third to Chocolate Holic in the Northam Cup (1600m). Has had four runs back from a spell and is one that will run this out strongly.
Why he can’t: Group 3 winner in June, but is just not up to the class of most of these.
STRATUM STAR
Odds ($12)
Jockey: Damian Lane.
Why he can: Darren Weir-trained entire, which was a last start second to Redkirk Warrior in the Sandown Stakes (1500m). Has had two trials since that run and is a winner up to 2000m. Will be handy throughout from the rails alley.
Why he can’t: Promises plenty, but rarely delivers. Biggest negative is that he hasn’t won since October last year.
KAWI (NZ)
Odds ($5.50)
Jockey: Michael Walker.
Why he can: This five-time Group 1 winning Kiwi meets most of these runners on much better terms than he did in the Railway Stakes. He didn’t get a lot of room in the straight and should have finished closer than sixth, beaten 4.25 lengths. He meets the winner Scales Of Justice five kilograms better at the weights and has won up to 2000m.
Why he can’t: Very difficult to find a reason, from the good barrier he may get held up for a run again.
DISPOSITION
Odds ($15)
Jockey: Glenn Smith.
Why he can: Had a wide gate in the Railway Stakes and went back to last early. It was tough to make ground from the rear and he did pick a few up in the run to the line. Prior to that he raced handy and finished second to Perfect Reflection in the Group 2 Lee Steere Stakes (1400m). Blinkers go on and should be peaking for this.
Why he can’t: Just would have liked him to do a bit more last start, but not a lot of negatives.
HE OR SHE
Odds ($26)
Jockey: Chris Parnham.
Why he can: Winner of six races this track and was placed three-times at Group 1 level during the spring. Form has tapered off last two starts, most recent was trapped wide and did work when ninth in the Railway Stakes, so could improve with better luck.
Why he can’t: Having his seventh run this campaign and may have tapered off. Drawn a wide gate again, so will need some luck in running.
DUBAI ESCAPADE
Odds ($151)
Jockey: Ben Kennedy.
Why he can: Form in easier races has been poor and can’t make a case for this seven-year-old.
Why he can’t: Opposition much faster and outclassed.
BASS STRAIT
Odds ($41)
Jockey: Brad Parnham.
Why he can: Placed last two starts. Was second to Scales Of Justice in the Group 3 R.J. Peters Stakes (1500m) before last start second to Chocolate Holic in Listed race here.
Why he can’t: This is a big step up in grade and tried and failed at 1800m five times.
TRADESMAN
Odds ($9.00)
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn.
Why he can: He was well back in the Railway and turned in a solid effort to finish the race off strongly late. Out to 1800m is a definite plus and his fitness level should be better this time.
Why he can’t: He only carried 53kgs last start and was entitled to run on better than he did. He rises to 59kgs and it’s doubtful he’s good enough to match it with these better horses at weight for age.
SCALES OF JUSTICE
Odds ($6.00)
Jockey: Douglas Whyte.
Why he can: Unbeaten in his last three starts and he was super impressive to lead all of the way to win the Group 1 Railway Stakes, beating Good Project and Perfect Reflection. He booted clear soon after straightening and was strong on the line.
Why he can’t: It gets back to weight again and he goes from 53kgs up to 58.5kgs. He has to jump from the outside barrier and not sure he will get such a soft run in front this time.
VANBRUGH
Odds ($14)
Jockey: Ben Melham.
Why he can: He’s a Group 1 winner over 1600m. He’s been freshened since his last start in the Mackinnon Stakes (2000m) on November 5. His run that day behind Awesome Rock was okay and he won his previous start in the Group 3 Coongy (2000m) at Caulfield. Blinkers go on and he should race on the bunny.
Why he can’t: He is racing here for the first time and may not handle the track, but not a lot of negatives.
MACKINTOSH (NZ)
Odds ($12)
Jockey: Damien Oliver.
Why he can: He sat outside Scales of Justice last start and chased him home for second. He meets that horse a kilogram better at the weights, will improve after getting a feel for the course and 1800m will be to his liking.
Why he can’t: Hard to find reasons why he is not one of the main chances.
HEART STARTER
Odds ($51)
Jockey: Peter Hall.
Why he can: has been in good form this preparation. Beaten 4.25 lengths in the Railway Stakes and winner this track and distance.
Why he can’t: Had the rails draw and every chance last start, wide gate will make it tough.
NEVERLAND
Odds ($51)
Jockey: Jarrad Noske.
Why she can: This mare doesn’t tick a lot of boxes. She was always well back in the Railway Stakes.
Why she can’t: Has not won a race for more than a year, not going well enough.
TICK TICK BLOOM
Odds ($151)
Jockey: Patrick Carbery.
Why she can: Impossible to recommend.
Why she can’t: Always near the rear in Railway and badly weighted to say the least.
PERFECT REFLECTION
Odds ($4.00 favourite)
Jockey: William Pike.
Why she can: She won this race last year and goes into the race fourth up. Last start she rattled home for third behind Scales Of Justice in the Railway Stakes. Speed should be on in this and she is ideally drawn in gate two. Pike to ride is a huge plus.
Why she can’t: Maybe it was condition, but she appeared to have had enough on the line in the Railway Stakes. She had the gun run and still couldn’t get past Mackintosh.
Best bet
1. Kawi
2. Mackintosh
3. Perfect Reflection
Value
Disposition
Latest Kingston Town Classic betting market and odds available here.