ADELAIDE vs NORTH MELBOURNE
You wouldn’t be a Kangaroo for love or money this weekend. Two consecutive six-day breaks, a worrying loss of form with three defeats in their last four games, biblical storms forecast for Adelaide and a Crows outfit fresh off a bye. Yes, the Roos regain captain Andrew Swallow and Ben Cunnington, but lose Daniel Wells.
Best bet: Adelaide 1-39 ($1.95) on a wild, wet and wintry night in the city of churches.
COLLINGWOOD vs FREMANTLE
It’s been a week of turmoil at Collingwood, with head honcho Eddie McGuire sticking his foot in his mouth yet again. But that might have been a handy distraction for the players, however, who haven’t won a game in more than a month and whose season is dying faster than their president’s reputation. On form the Dockers should be a monty here, having strung together three wins in a row, but they’ve lost their last four against Collingwood at the MCG. Expect them to end that run here.
Best bet: Fremantle win ($2.00).
RICHMOND vs BRISBANE
Normally you’d be carted off to a white room with padded walls for putting your house on Richmond as absolute certainties, but against a team that hasn’t beaten them since 2009, they’re as good as a sure thing. The Tigers have beaten only one team of any substance this year (a one-point win against Sydney in Round 8), but Brisbane hasn’t won since Round 3. With Tom Bell likely out for the rest of the season after undergoing knee surgery, it’ll be 10 losses in a row for the Lions.
Best bet: Total points under 193.5 ($1.88). With the Tigers averaging less than 86 points a game and the Lions averaging less than 77, coupled with a wet MCG, this one should be a scrap-fest.
GWS vs CARLTON
The Blues face what has become arguably the worst road trip in football – an assignment at Spotless Stadium against GWS, who haven’t lost on their home track all season and have given Geelong, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs and Sydney a touch-up there along the way. The Giants were a little off last week against Essendon but still rammed through 117 points, and are expecting to get ruckman Shane Mumford, veteran Steve Johnson and key defender Phil Davis back from injury.
Best bet: GWS 40+ ($1.71)
ST KILDA vs GEELONG
The Dangerfield and Selwood show is back at Etihad Stadium – the scene of two of the most comprehensive tandem performances by a duo since, well, forever – for a third consecutive game this weekend. Now comfortably the flag favourites ($4.25), the Cats have dispatched fellow premiership fancies the Western Bulldogs and North Melbourne by 57 and 31 points in the last fortnight. St Kilda are showing encouraging signs of life and do play Etihad Stadium well, but this looks a massive ask.
Best bets: Patrick Dangerfield 35 or more disposals ($2.80) for the third week in a row, and Geelong -33.5 ($1.92).
HAWTHORN vs GOLD COAST
Oh dear. How painful is this going to be? The worst part about the clash between the reigning three-time premiers and the struggling Suns is that there’s no other game to watch or listen to, with the AFL scheduling it as the only game on Sunday. When this one goes the way we expect it to, you might want to flick over to Channel 7 and watch Collingwood and Richmond go around in the VFL, or Channel 9 might just have the pick of the day with a documentary on pandas.
Best bet: The Hawks in Tassie is about as tough as it gets, particularly if captain Luke Hodge makes his return. Hawks -51.5 ($1.92).
Latest AFL betting and odds available here.