The 2018 Brownlow Medal will be awarded on Monday night and we are set for a thrilling race towards the AFL’s most prestigious individual honour.
Hawthorn’s Tom Mitchell has been prominent in 2018 Brownlow Medal betting all season and remains the $1.57 favourite from defending champion Dustin Martin ($7) and Melbourne’s Max Gawn ($11).
Below you can find a preview on each of the market leaders, our best roughie and a host of 2018 Brownlow Medal Tips!
Tom Mitchell – Hawthorn ($1.57)
Tom Mitchell is the red-hot favourite to take out the 2018 Brownlow Medal. Hawthorn’s ball magnet was recently voted the 2018 AFL Players’ MVP by his peers, finishing comfortably above both Patrick Cripps and Max Gawn. Mitchell broke AFL the record for most disposals in a home and away season, finishing with 786 at an average of 35.7 per game, also finishing with most clearances (173) and most handballs (426). He managed to amass 40+ disposals during 11 matches this season, with Hawthorn claiming victory from seven of those games. Provided the midfielder polls three points across each of those victories, while also picking up at least one in the four defeats, we’ve predicted he’ll finish the season with a respectable 26 votes.
Predicted Votes: 26
Dustin Martin – Richmond ($7)
Last year’s Brownlow Medallist Dustin Martin is a strong contender to go back-to-back following a strong finish to the regular season. After a promising start to the year, Dusty looked to be playing within himself through a stretch of 10 matches and from Round 6 – 15, the star Tiger will be lucky to poll a single vote. Damien Hardwick has utilised Martin in the forward half of the ground to great effect this season, with the star Tiger leading the AFL for inside 50’s (127) to go with 31 goals and 22 goal assists; compared to Tom Mitchell’s 13 and 12 respectively. As a result of his mid-season dry spell, Dusty isn’t expected to get anywhere near his record breaking 2017 season (36 votes). Historically, goal scoring midfielders have tended to poll higher than pure possession hoarders which places the defending champion in good stead.
Predicted Votes: 25
Suggested Bet: Top 3 ($2.20)
Max Gawn – Melbourne ($11)
Can a ruckman win a Brownlow Medal? The answer is yes, although the feat hasn’t been achieved since Jim Stynes and Scott Wynd won it in ’91 and ’92 respectively. Since then, the Brownlow has been heavily considered a midfielder’s medal, more specifically goal-scoring mids, with the most-recent winners coming in the form of excitement machines Dusty Martin, Patty Dangerfield and Nat Fyfe. If anyone can break this trend, it’s the Dee’s ruckman Max Gawn. The big man was crowned the 2018 AFL coaches’ Association Player of the Year ahead of Carlton’s young gun Patrick Cripps and Brownlow favourite Tom Mitchell. Gawn became the first ever ruckman to win 1000 hit-out in the regular home and away season. Not only did he dominate through the stoppages, but was also highly effective around the ground and averaged an impressive 17 possessions a game, as well as racking up 50 contested marks (2nd highest) throughout the season.
Predicted Votes: 27
Suggested Bet(s): To Win ($11), Top 3 ($2.60)
Patrick Cripps – Carlton ($17)
Carlton’s 23-year-old Patrick Cripps is clearly Brendon Bolton’s best player, standing head and shoulders above the rest of his team-mates. The prolific ball getter finished the regular season with the most contested possession (387), ahead of Melbourne’s Clayton Oliver (360) and Hawthorn’s Tom Mitchell (352). The biggest factor playing against Cripps’ Brownlow Medal tilt is the poor showing from the rest of his side. Carlton finished the 2018 season dead last with daylight between the Blues and the next-worst side. The prestigious club only managed two wins during the season, severely hampering the likelihood of Cripps polling the maximum three votes per game.
Predicted Votes: 23
Suggested Bet: Top 5 ($1.40)
Dayne Beams – Brisbane ($21)
As a ball winning, goal kicking midfielder, Dayne Beams fits the Brownlow Medal blueprint perfectly. Beams struggled to find form early on in the year and battled with his own demons off the footy field. Beams started to find his grove again after round eight, as he went on to average a commanding 30 disposals, six clearances and six marks in the following 14 matches, while racking up a handy goal tally of 18. Beams tallied 17 votes last season as the Lions finished with the wooden spoon and with Brisbane’s improved showing in 2018, couplded with Beams’ stellar back end of the season, the Collingwood convert could be the dark horse in this year’s count.
Suggested Bet: Top 5 ($2.20)