Our prediction is done using six years of historical data, feeding player match stats into a neural network. Player involvements measured by stats such as Supercoach points, disposals, hitouts, clearances, inside 50s, tackles, and contested possessions are considered by the model, as well as the result and final margin for the player’s team. Adjustments are also made for each player’s polling history.
|Best Bet||T.Mitchell / D.Martin quinella @ $4.00|
|Circuit Bet||Oliver Most Team Votes – Melbourne @ $2.65|
|Circuit Bet||Gaff Most Team Votes – West Coast @ $2.10|
|Value Bet||Cripps 17 or fewer votes @ $8.00|
|Value Bet||B.Grundy 16 votes or fewer @ $8.00|
Instead of assigning just a 3,2,1 for each game. The probability of each player polling in each spot is calculated to find each players’ expected votes for any given game. The highest predicted vote tally came from Round 23 where Dangerfield won 34 disposals and kicked 4 goals. He led the match for ranking points, disposals, contested possessions and clearances, while Dangerfield also holding one of the best polling histories of current players. He was predicted to poll 2.77 votes in that game.
Our prediction model has Tom Mitchell starting as favourite, but not as short as the punters believe. The markets have Mitchell sitting at $1.50, but the numbers suggest he is just a 50-50 chance of taking home the medal. Dustin Martin despite having a down year compared to 2017 should still poll heavily. The bookies have the ruckman in Grundy and Gawn high, but recent history suggests that they will be overlooked by the umpires, giving them a combined 4% chance or winning.
|Josh P. Kennedy||15.9|
Chance of Leading
|Josh P. Kennedy||1%|
Tom Mitchell rightly stands as the favourite to win the Brownlow medal. The key for Mitchell will be his high polling games. He is predicted for 0.5 or more votes in 16 of his games, the same or fewer than Martin, Dangerfield and Gaff. However, where he stands out are games for games with two or more votes, he had eight of these games, with the next best player on five. He won 40+ and kicked a goal in six matches, no other player achieved this more than twice. Mitchell’s chances of winning the Brownlow could be obvious early in the night, he is precited to start with 6.5 votes from his first three games.
Martin should start the count fast, slowdown in the middle, but then come home with a flurry. At Round 7 we estimate that he will be sitting on 9.5 votes, sitting second behind only Tom Mitchell. From rounds 8-15 he should only pick up 4.2 votes. Though, in the final eight rounds he should collect 13.8 votes, three votes more than the next best player (Clayton Oliver). He averaged 28 disposals and 1.6 goals per game in that stretch, playing in seven wins. His predicted numbers are influenced by his strong polling history.
Gaff was Mitchell’s No.1 challenger throughout the season and with seven rounds to go he was sitting just 0.6 votes behind Mitchell. Across the season he was one the West Coast’s top two ball winners in 12 of their 16 wins. The numbers suggest he should comfortably poll the most votes amongst West Coast players, sitting 9.2 votes ahead of Elliot Yeo.