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NFL Thanksgiving Match Tips, Odds and Bets – 2018

Posted by on 21/11/2018
Filled in: Betting News

The Thanksgiving triple-header is always one of the premiere days on the NFL calendar and this year is no exception. As is tradition, the Lions and Cowboys are at home in the first 2 games, playing host to the Bears and Redskins respectively. The night game is the icing on the cake, as the Saints play host to the Falcons in another instalment of this epic NFC South rivalry.

The Bears can cement their status as NFC north leaders with a win here, whilst the winner of the Dallas and Washington game can gain control in the NFC East. New Orleans need to keep on their winning ways as they battle with the Rams for the top seed in the NFC playoffs. Let’s take a look at our best bet on the board in each of these games in what is sure to be an exciting day of NFL action.

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DETROIT LIONS VS CHICAGO BEARS (4:30AM AEDT)

Detroit Lions

The Lions enter this one off a resurgent 1-point home win over the Panthers last week. RB Kerryon Johnson again stole the show, rushing for 87 yards and a touchdown on his 15 carries. Kenny Golladay has also emerged as a legitimate #1 Receiver, hauling in 8 catches for 113 yards and a score. It was the Lions defence that really won this game, holding the vaunted Panthers rushing attack to just 56 yards. Whilst they allowed a fair amount of yards, they registered 3 sacks and made a key interception to seal the win.

Chicago Bears

Chicago travels to Detroit after a huge win at home to Minnesota last week. This was despite the struggles from QB Mitchell Trubisky, who threw for only 165 yards and 2 interceptions. The rushing attack also struggled to get going, with Jordan Howard only averaging 3.5 yards on his 18 attempts. It was another stellar display from the vaunted Bears defence that sealed this one. They held the Vikings to just 22 yards all evening, allowing only 5.7 yards per pass attempt in the process. This defence is the best of the 4 units in this one and can be the catalyst behind a big road win here.

Prediction: Under 45.5 points

For a division rivalry game on a short week, I feel as though this is too many points. Both of these defences match up well with the opposing offences and should keep this one relatively low scoring. Bears 20-17 Lions.

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DALLAS COWBOYS VS WASHINGTON REDSKINS (8:30AM AEDT)

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys enter this one in excellent form after consecutive road wins over both the Eagles and Falcons. Zeke Elliott carried the offence last week, totalling 30 touches for 200 yards and a score. This has allowed QB Dak Prescott to slip into more of the game manager role that he excelled in as a Rookie. This Cowboys defence continues to be excellent and hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in each of the last 6 weeks. Pass rusher DeMarcus Lawrence has led the way up front, whilst Linebackers Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch have started to form an outstanding duo in the middle.

Washington Redskins

The Redskins enter this one at 6-4 after a crushing loss to the Texans last week where they lost QB Alex Smith. Smith hadn’t been playing too well prior to the injury, completing only 12/27 passes and throwing 2 interceptions. This made life tough for RB Adrian Peterson, who managed a gritty 51 yards and 2 touchdowns. It was another strong defensive display from the Redskins, who allowed over 20 points for the first time in 6 games. They contained the explosive Texans passing offence nicely, allowing under 200 total yards and registering 3 turnovers. With Colt McCoy likely starting here, the Redskins defence will need to bring it for them to pull off the upset.

Prediction: Redskins +8

The Cowboys have a trend of failing to cover as big home favourites. With his poor play this season, I don’t think the gap from Alex Smith to Colt McCoy is too big. I’m expecting a low scoring game here and am comfortable taking the Redskins over the key number of 7. Cowboys 23-16 Redskins.

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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS ATLANTA FALCONS (12:20PM AEDT)

New Orleans Saints

The Saints enter this one at a very impressive 9-1 after enjoying 9 straight victories, including a 48-7 home romp over Philadelphia last week. Drew Brees was ridiculous yet again, registering 363 yards and 4 touchdowns on just 30 attempts. This was complemented nicely by the Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara RB duo, who combined for 174 yards and 2 scores. It was also a great display from the Saints defence here, holding Philadelphia to just 58 rushing yards and intercepting QB Carson Wentz 3 times. If this defence continues to play at a high level, the Saints can make a strong case for being the best team in the NFL.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta enter this one at 4-6 after a crushing last-minute loss to the Cowboys last week. QB Matt Ryan struggled by his lofty standards, throwing under 300 yards and registering only 1 touchdown. The running game couldn’t get going either, as Atlanta settled for 4 field goals. It was a better performance from a Falcons defence that has largely struggled, holding Dak Prescott to just 205 yards. That said, the rushing defence still struggled as Zeke Elliott had another performance for the ages. Against a seemingly unstoppable Saints offence, this unit will have to be at their best this week.

Prediction: Saints 1-13

These teams played just two months ago in a game where Atlanta was actually favoured. I believe the line value is here on the Falcons and expect them to keep this close, despite the Saints incredible form. As I can’t see New Orleans losing this outright, picking the Saints by 1-13 points represents the best value. Saints 37-27 Falcons.

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