Saturday’s Orr Stakes (1400m) brings together a good mix of quality sprinters and stayers. The Caulfield Group 1 will see Malaguerra and Black Heart Bart clash again after Malaguerra had the edge in the Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley. Caulfield Cup winner Jameka also starts her campaign and smart three-year-old Divine Prophet tackles the older horses for the first time.
BLACK HEART BART
Odds ($3.80)
Jockey: Brad Rawiller.
Why he can: Super sprinter who resumed with a fast-finishing second to Malaguerra in the Australia Stakes (1200m) at Moonee Valley. Fitter for the run, great second-up record and won three from four this track.
Why he can’t: Difficult to find a reason. Wide alley is only negative.
AWESOME ROCK
Odds ($34)
Jockey: Stephen Baster.
Why he can: Underrated five-year-old resuming from a spell. Last start won the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes (2000m). Has raced well fresh in the past and deserves respect.
Why he can’t: Yet to win first-up and not won this track in nine attempts. Will be better suited over longer distances
LUCKY HUSSLER
Odds ($7.50)
Jockey: Damian Lane.
Why he can: Resumed from a break with a luckless effort in Gold Coast Magic Millions Cup, when lumped 61kgs and probably should have won. Fitter for the run, races well this track and better suited at weight for age.
Why he can’t: He got well out of his ground last start and from the wide gate he may have to go back again.
MALAGUERRA
Odds ($3.80 favourite)
Jockey: Ben Melham.
Why he can: This five-year-old has come of age. He won two group 1’s last year and resumed from a spell with a powerful win in the Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley, where he had two lengths to spare on Black Heart Bart. Honest sprinter in career best form.
Why he can’t: Clutching at straws. He has drawn wide and has an 0-3 record at Caulfield.
TURN ME LOOSE
Odds ($21)
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy.
Why he can: Won the Group 1 Futurity Stakes (1400m) at this track in February last year. Didn’t come up after that, but will be fitter for first-up effort when well beaten seventh to Malaguerra last start.
Why he can’t: Hard to see him turning the tables on rivals he met in the Australia Stakes.
AROD
Odds ($14)
Jockey: Chris Waller.
Why he can: Import who made Australian debut in November and was third in the Chatham Stakes (1400m) at Flemington. He has trialled twice since and steps out to a more suitable distance.
Why he can’t: Yet to win under 1600m and may find these top line sprinters a little too quick.
PALENTINO
Odds ($19)
Jockey: Mark Zahra.
Why he can: Dual Group 1 winner but didn’t fire in the spring. Showed he may be ready to fire this preparation with a nice effort behind Malaguerra. He was well back in that race and worked to the line strongly and will strip a lot fitter here.
Why he can’t: Another that has failed in three goes at Caulfield. Smart horse, just need him to show consistency this time.
ECUADOR
Odds ($12)
Jockey: Adam Hyeronimus.
Why he can: Fitness edge on a lot of these. Winner of past two Sydney starts. The latest won the Listed Carrington (1400m) and will be up on the speed.
Why he can’t: Faces a massive class rise here and having first run the anti-clockwise way of going.
HE’S OUR ROKKII
Odds ($15)
Jockey: Regan Bayliss.
Why he can: Strung together five wins in a row including two this track, latest being the Group 1 Toorak Hcp (1600m). He was then spelled after finishing unplaced in the Group 1 Cantala Stakes (1600m). Races well fresh and very honest.
Why he can’t: Not a proven weight for age sprinter, but does not have a lot of negatives.
JAMEKA
Odds ($17)
Jockey: Luke Nolen.
Why she can: Last year’s Caulfield Cup winner and then went on to Melbourne Cup but did not run out the 3200m. She resumes here and has a good record this track.
Why she can’t: Unlikely to be able to stay in touch with these sprinters. Expect here to be running on, but she will produce her best when her races get longer.
MISS ROSE DE LAGO
Odds ($21)
Jockey: Damien Oliver.
Why she can: Another returning from a spell. This mare has won four races this track and has a solid record when resuming. She has been sharpened for her return with a solid Geelong barrier trial win.
Why she can’t: She’s fairly consistent in weaker grade and best win was at Group 2 level. Just struggles against the top notch.
DIVINE PROPHET
Odds ($9.50)
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn.
Why he can: Class three-year-old who won the Caulfield Guineas (1600m) before a spell. Has had two barrier trials in Sydney and did well in both without being put under any pressure.
Why he can’t: Huge first-up task taking on the older horses in top grade, but he is a quality colt and making a case against him is difficult.
Best
1 — Black Heart Bart
2 — Malaguerra
3 — Lucky Hussler
Value
Miss Rose De Lago
